{"id":3713,"date":"2017-05-03T14:20:43","date_gmt":"2017-05-03T22:20:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rainbowpaullai.com\/?p=3713"},"modified":"2017-05-11T06:48:36","modified_gmt":"2017-05-11T14:48:36","slug":"%e6%89%8b%e6%a9%9f%e6%99%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%83%b9%e7%9a%84%e7%a6%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.rainbowpaullai.com\/p\/3713","title":{"rendered":"\u624b\u6a5f\u6642\u5e38\u60f9\u7684\u798d \u00a0 [\u8f49\u8f09\u81ea\u6642\u4ee3\u8ad6\u58c7]\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u624b\u6a5f\u6642\u5e38\u60f9\u7684\u798d<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u6085\u8aaa<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u932f\u914d\u5a5a\u59fb\u3000\u89aa\u5bc6\u544a\u7d42<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u63a5\u89f8\u738b\u6c0f\u5bb6\u5ead\u59cb\u65bc\u516d\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u3002\u50b3\u9053\u4eba\u8f49\u4ecb\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u7d66\u738b\u5148\u751f\u5a5a\u59fb\u6025\u6551\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u7684\u5167\u5730\u59bb\u5b50\u651c\u540c\u5176\u6642\u4e03\u6b72\u5152\u5b50\u5230\u6e2f\u5718\u805a\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u548c\u8ae7\u65e5\u5b50\u597d\u904e\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u5f88\u591a\u4e2d\u6e2f\u5a5a\u59fb\u7684\u592b\u5a66\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u70ba\u8457\u793e\u6703\u6027\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6709\u5145\u4efd\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e0b\uff0c\u751a\u6216\u6839\u672c\u660e\u77e5\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f8\u914d\u642d\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fbf\u706b\u901f\u7d50\u5a5a\u3002\u5206\u9694\u5169\u5730\u6642\uff0c\u5f7c\u6b64\u4ecd\u6709\u81ea\u5728\u7a7a\u9593\uff1b\u4f46\u4f86\u6e2f\u5718\u805a\u5f8c\uff0c\u65e5\u5915\u76f8\u5c0d\uff0c\u7d42\u65e5\u56f0\u5728\u70ba\u67f4\u7c73\u6cb9\u9e7d\u5f35\u7f85\u6216\u767c\u6101\u7684\u6597\u5ba4\u4e2d\uff0c\u5247\u7121\u8def\u53ef\u9000\uff0c\u7121\u8655\u53ef\u9003\u3002\u539f\u672c\u4e26\u982d\u9023\u7406\uff0c\u5230\u982d\u4f86\u537b\u6210\u6028\u5076\u4e00\u5c0d\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u95dc\u4fc2\u8106\u5f31\u3000\u7528\u5f37\u66f4\u7cdf<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u3000\u3000\u516d\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u6025\u6551\u7121\u6548\uff0c\u6b7b\u56e0\u662f\u4ec7\u592a\u6df1\u3001\u6068\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8f14\u5c0e\u4e5f\u662f\u70ba\u6642\u5df2\u665a\uff0c\u96e2\u5a5a\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u4ee4\u4eba\u8a1d\u7570\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u5e74\u5e7c\u5b50\u5973\u4e3b\u8981\u7167\u9867\u8005\u7684\u5973\u65b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u96e3\u5f97\u5230\u7ba1\u990a\u6b0a\uff0c\u738b\u5148\u751f\u53ea\u80fd\u4e0d\u6642\u63a2\u8996\u5152\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u3000\u3000\u8fd1\u6708\u96a8\u8457\u5973\u65b9\u6642\u5e38\u8650\u5f85\u5152\u5b50\uff0c\u738b\u5148\u751f\u5165\u7980\u5bb6\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u596a\u56de\u5152\u5b50\u7684\u7ba1\u990a\u6b0a\u3002\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u63a5\u56de\u5152\u5b50\u540c\u4f4f\u53ef\u4e0d\u80fd\u6c38\u9060\u5e78\u798f\uff0c\u91cd\u805a\u7684\u6b23\u559c\u5f88\u5feb\u96a8\u8457\u7ba1\u6559\u7684\u5f35\u529b\u800c\u77ac\u9593\u6d88\u901d\u3002\u5152\u5b50\u904e\u5ea6\u4f7f\u7528\u624b\u6a5f\uff0c\u7236\u89aa\u9010\u6f38\u5f9e\u597d\u8a00\u76f8\u52f8\u81f3\u5f37\u786c\u93ae\u58d3\uff0c\u7236\u5b50\u5006\u52d5\u8f12\u528d\u62d4\u5f29\u5f35\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u5e7e\u4e4e\u628a\u539f\u672c\u8106\u5f31\u4e0d\u582a\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u58d3\u57ae\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u63a2\u5c0b\u56e0\u679c\u3000\u4e2d\u65b7\u5faa\u74b0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u3000\u3000\u7f8e\u9cf3\u662f\u5718\u5951\u5c0e\u5e2b\uff0c\u5979\u6eab\u67d4\u548c\u6709\u8010\u6027\uff0c\u6642\u5e38\u50be\u807d\u738b\u5148\u751f\u5152\u5b50\u7684\u5fc3\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u7d66\u4e88\u5b89\u6170\u8207\u652f\u6301\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5176\u95dc\u4fc2\u6bd4\u4ed6\u6bcd\u89aa\u66f4\u89aa\u5bc6\u3002\u5979\u4e5f\u966a\u540c\u9019\u5169\u7236\u5b50\u5e36\u5230\u6211\u7684\u8f14\u5c0e\u5ba4\u4f86\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u3000\u3000\u738b\u5148\u751f\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u5bb9\u5fcd\u4ed6\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4ed6\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u904e\u5206\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u975e\u8981\u6536\u56de\u4ed6\u7684\u624b\u6a5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u3002\u300d\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7576\u7136\u662f\u738b\u5148\u751f\u4e4b\u57cb\u6028\u3002\u6211\u80af\u5b9a\u738b\u5148\u751f\u4f5c\u70ba\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u82e6\u5fc3\uff0c\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\u5c11\u5e74\u4eba\u900f\u904e\u624b\u6a5f\u5a1b\u6a02\u548c\u793e\u4ea4\u7684\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u8b93\u5152\u5b50\u89ba\u5f97\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u300c\u6253\u624b\u300d\u3002\u7d93\u904e\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8046\u807d\u548c\u6f84\u6e05\uff0c\u6211\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u770b\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5152\u5b50\u9700\u8981\u8f15\u9b06\u548c\u8207\u53cb\u4eba\u806f\u7e6b\u3001\u5152\u5b50\u7528\u624b\u6a5f\u81f3\u6df1\u591c\u3001\u7236\u89aa\u64d4\u5fc3\u5152\u5b50\u5065\u5eb7\u53ca\u5b78\u696d\u800c\u52f8\u55bb\u505c\u6b62\u3001\u5152\u5b50\u8ff4\u907f\u8207\u62d6\u5ef6\u3001\u7236\u89aa\u6012\u65a5\u53ca\u6536\u6a5f\u3001\u5152\u5b50\u6c23\u61a4\u5165\u7761\u4e26\u5806\u7a4d\u6028\u6c23\u3002\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u4e2d\u90fd\u767c\u5c55\u4e26\u7dad\u6301\u8457\u4e00\u500b\u6163\u6027\u3002\u9019\u4fbf\u662f\u7cfb\u7d71\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u6982\u5ff5\uff08<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Concept of circularity<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\uff09\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u9677\u6eba\u65bc\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u7dd2\u84cb\u904e\u4e86\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u4e0d\u671f\u7136\u5730\u5f62\u6210\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u5f7c\u6b64\u7406\u89e3\u3000\u4e2d\u4fdd\u627f\u8f09<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u3000\u3000\u89e3\u6551\u4ed6\u5011\u7236\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u9996\u5148\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5bdf\u89ba\u5c0d\u9019\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u662f\u8b93\u5f7c\u6b64\u9053\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9700\u8981\u548c\u96e3\u8655\uff0c\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\u660e\u767d\u5c0d\u65b9\u7684\u9700\u8981\u548c\u96e3\u8655\u3002\u9019\u505a\u6cd5\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u5c0d\u4ec7\u6068\u4e0d\u592a\u6839\u6df1\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u594f\u6548\u7684\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u662f\u8b93\u9019\u5c0d\u7236\u5b50\u5728\u4e0d\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u6c23\u6c1b\u4e0b\u5546\u91cf\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u7d1b\u3002\u64fa\u812b\u6b0a\u9b25\uff0c\u7a7a\u9593\u8207\u9078\u64c7\u662f\u91cd\u9ede\u3002\u4e0d\u591a\u4e00\u6703\uff0c\u5152\u5b50\u63d0\u51fa\u7528\u624b\u6a5f\u81f3\u665a\u4e0a\u5341\u4e00\u6642\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u81ea\u52d5\u81ea\u89ba\u4ea4\u624b\u6a5f\u7d66\u7236\u89aa\u4fdd\u7ba1\u3002\u6709\u7d93\u9a57\u7684\u8f14\u5c0e\u8005\u4e0d\u96e3\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u662f\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c11\u5e74\u5152\u5b50\u8584\u5f31\u7684\u81ea\u5236\u529b\u548c\u7236\u89aa\u96e3\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5fc3\u5e73\u6c23\u548c\u3002\u6211\u9810\u671f\uff08<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Predictability<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\uff09\u53ea\u6703\u91cd\u8e48\u300c\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u7684\u8986\u8f4d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e4b\u9593\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u4e2d\u4fdd\u300d<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">\u2500\u2500<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u7f8e\u9cf3\u5c0e\u5e2b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7236\u5b50\u5006\u90fd\u4fe1\u4efb\u7f8e\u9cf3\uff0c\u628a\u904e\u5269\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u627f\u8f09\u3002\u7f8e\u9cf3\u6a02\u610f\u6bcf\u665a\u8207\u5152\u5b50\u50be\u8ac7\u6216\u65bc\u5341\u4e00\u6642\u81f4\u96fb\u5152\u5b50\u8981\u4ed6\u95dc\u624b\u6a5f\u548c\u628a\u624b\u6a5f\u653e\u5230\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u5e8a\u982d\u3002\u5152\u5b50\u7684\u4ea4\u4ee3\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5236\u7d04\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d7\u611b\u7684\u9a45\u4f7f\u4e0b\u4e4b\u5fc3\u7518\u60c5\u9858\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u66ab\u6642\u5e73\u8861\u3000\u8def\u4ecd\u6f2b\u9577<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\u3000\u3000\u8aa0\u5982\u6211\u6240\u9810\u6599\uff0c\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u88ab\u6253\u7834\uff0c\u7236\u5b50\u76f8\u8655\u66ab\u6642\u53d6\u5f97\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u3002\u611f\u8b1d\u4e0a\u5e1d\u70ba\u9019\u5bb6\u9810\u5099\u4e86\u7f8e\u9cf3\u9019\u5929\u4f7f\uff0c\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u300c\u8abf\u548c\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u89d2\u5f0f\uff0c\u8b93\u5b69\u5b50\u6709\u8457\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u4f9d\u9644\u3002\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u6d41\u52d5\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u64fa\u5e73\u8b93\u96d9\u65b9\u589e\u52a0\u4e0b\u6b21\u9762\u5c0d\u96e3\u984c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u300c\u990a\u5152\u4e00\u767e\u6b72\uff0c\u9577\u6182\u4e5d\u5341\u4e5d\u300d\uff0c\u6559\u990a\u4e4b\u8def\u5d0e\u5d87\u4e0d\u5e73\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u591a\u500b\u9ad8\u5c71\u4f4e\u8c37\u8981\u7a7f\u8d8a\u5462\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: SimSun;\">\uff08\u4f5c\u8005\u5718\u968a\uff1a\u970d\u7389\u84ee\u3001\u674e\u674f\u73b2\u3001\u76e7\u5922\u9cf4\u3001\u674e\u9e97\u5e73\u3001\u5f35\u6167\u5ac8\u3001\u9678\u51f1\u73ca\u3001\u4f55\u5b50\u7f8e\u3001\u9ea5\u5fd7\u5805\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u624b\u6a5f\u6642\u5e38\u60f9\u7684\u798d \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u6085\u8aaa\u00a0 \u00a0 \u932f\u914d\u5a5a\u59fb\u3000\u89aa\u5bc6\u544a\u7d42 \u00a0 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\u3000\u3000\u89e3\u6551\u4ed6\u5011\u7236\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u9996\u5148\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5bdf\u89ba\u5c0d\u9019\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u662f\u8b93\u5f7c\u6b64\u9053\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9700\u8981\u548c\u96e3\u8655\uff0c\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\u660e\u767d\u5c0d\u65b9\u7684\u9700\u8981\u548c\u96e3\u8655\u3002\u9019\u505a\u6cd5\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u5c0d\u4ec7\u6068\u4e0d\u592a\u6839\u6df1\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u594f\u6548\u7684\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u662f\u8b93\u9019\u5c0d\u7236\u5b50\u5728\u4e0d\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u6c23\u6c1b\u4e0b\u5546\u91cf\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u7d1b\u3002\u64fa\u812b\u6b0a\u9b25\uff0c\u7a7a\u9593\u8207\u9078\u64c7\u662f\u91cd\u9ede\u3002\u4e0d\u591a\u4e00\u6703\uff0c\u5152\u5b50\u63d0\u51fa\u7528\u624b\u6a5f\u81f3\u665a\u4e0a\u5341\u4e00\u6642\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u81ea\u52d5\u81ea\u89ba\u4ea4\u624b\u6a5f\u7d66\u7236\u89aa\u4fdd\u7ba1\u3002\u6709\u7d93\u9a57\u7684\u8f14\u5c0e\u8005\u4e0d\u96e3\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u662f\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c11\u5e74\u5152\u5b50\u8584\u5f31\u7684\u81ea\u5236\u529b\u548c\u7236\u89aa\u96e3\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5fc3\u5e73\u6c23\u548c\u3002\u6211\u9810\u671f\uff08Predictability\uff09\u53ea\u6703\u91cd\u8e48\u300c\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u7684\u8986\u8f4d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e4b\u9593\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u4e2d\u4fdd\u300d\u2500\u2500\u7f8e\u9cf3\u5c0e\u5e2b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7236\u5b50\u5006\u90fd\u4fe1\u4efb\u7f8e\u9cf3\uff0c\u628a\u904e\u5269\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u627f\u8f09\u3002\u7f8e\u9cf3\u6a02\u610f\u6bcf\u665a\u8207\u5152\u5b50\u50be\u8ac7\u6216\u65bc\u5341\u4e00\u6642\u81f4\u96fb\u5152\u5b50\u8981\u4ed6\u95dc\u624b\u6a5f\u548c\u628a\u624b\u6a5f\u653e\u5230\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u5e8a\u982d\u3002\u5152\u5b50\u7684\u4ea4\u4ee3\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5236\u7d04\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d7\u611b\u7684\u9a45\u4f7f\u4e0b\u4e4b\u5fc3\u7518\u60c5\u9858\u3002 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